Violent crime across Tennessee dropped for the second straight year in 2023, according to preliminary FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data released in the fall. Nationally, homicides fell roughly 12% compared to 2022. Property crime dipped in most major metros. For the first time since the pandemic spike of 2020, the trend lines across the state actually look encouraging.
That matters to anyone running a security operation in Tennessee right now. Declining crime doesn’t mean declining demand for private security. It usually means the opposite. When police departments restructure, when cities invest in new surveillance infrastructure, when businesses realize they can’t rely on a 45-minute police response time, private security fills the gap. And 2024 is shaping up to be the year that dynamic accelerates across the state.
The Numbers Behind the Headlines
The FBI’s preliminary 2023 data covers roughly 75% of law enforcement agencies nationwide through the National Incident-Based Reporting System. Tennessee’s numbers track the national pattern: violent crime down, property crime mixed, motor vehicle theft still elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels.
Memphis remains an outlier in some categories. The city recorded around 280 homicides in 2023, down from 346 in 2022 and well below the record 346 in 2021. That’s real progress. Still, Memphis accounts for a disproportionate share of Tennessee’s violent crime totals given its population of roughly 630,000 out of the state’s 7 million residents.
Nashville saw similar downward movement. Knoxville and Chattanooga both reported lower violent crime numbers through the third quarter of 2023. The statewide picture, taken together, is one of improvement across nearly every metro area.
Yet the raw numbers hide some important details. Aggravated assaults in Memphis remained stubbornly high even as homicides fell. Carjackings, which surged starting in 2020, came down from their peak in certain precincts. They stayed elevated in others, particularly around the Hickory Hill and Whitehaven corridors. The Tennessee Bureau of Investigation’s year-end crime report, expected sometime in the spring, will give a clearer picture of county-by-county trends.
Memphis PD Under a Microscope
The biggest variable in Tennessee’s 2024 security outlook isn’t crime statistics. It’s the Department of Justice.
In late 2023, the DOJ announced a consent decree with the Memphis Police Department following its investigation into the department’s practices. That investigation accelerated after the death of Tyre Nichols in January 2023 and the subsequent disbanding of the SCORPION unit. The consent decree imposes federal oversight on MPD’s use of force policies, traffic stop protocols, and internal accountability systems.
For Memphis businesses, this creates a specific kind of uncertainty. Consent decrees historically slow police departments down during the reform period. Officers become more cautious. Proactive policing drops. Response times for non-emergency calls, already averaging over 30 minutes for Priority 3 calls in some precincts, tend to stretch further.
That’s not a criticism of the consent decree. The reforms are necessary given what the DOJ investigation revealed. It’s a recognition that the transition period creates a security vacuum that someone has to fill.
Private Security Steps Into the Gap
Here’s what security company owners across Tennessee already know: phone calls from commercial property managers have been increasing since mid-2023. Requests for proposals from retail chains, healthcare facilities, and logistics operations are up. The companies that can staff qualified guards, especially armed guards with proper TDCI registration, are winning contracts they wouldn’t have landed two years ago.
The dynamic is simple. When a business owner calls MPD for a trespassing issue and waits 90 minutes for a patrol car, that owner starts thinking about private security. When a property manager reads about the consent decree and realizes proactive policing in their area might decrease for the next few years, they start budgeting for on-site guards.
This isn’t happening only in Memphis. Nashville property managers along Charlotte Pike and in the Gulch area have been expanding security contracts. Knoxville’s downtown business improvement district increased its private security budget by roughly 15% for 2024. Chattanooga’s Southside neighborhood added camera systems and regular patrol contracts at several commercial complexes.
The statewide demand increase creates opportunities and headaches in equal measure. Opportunities because contract values are rising and clients are willing to pay more for qualified personnel. Headaches because finding those qualified personnel remains the industry’s biggest bottleneck.
The Real Time Crime Center Factor
Memphis quietly expanded its Real Time Crime Center through 2023, adding cameras and integrating feeds from private security systems across the city. The RTCC, which operates out of the Shelby County Crime Commission’s facility, now monitors over 2,000 camera feeds in real time, with analysts who can direct patrol units to developing situations.
For private security companies, the RTCC represents both a tool and a competitive differentiator. Companies whose camera systems integrate with the city’s network can offer clients a tangible connection to law enforcement monitoring. That’s a selling point that didn’t exist five years ago.
The expansion also signals where the city expects crime response to head in 2024: toward technology-driven, camera-assisted policing that supplements a department still working to rebuild its sworn officer count. MPD has been operating below authorized strength for over two years. The department budgeted for roughly 2,000 officers and has been running with around 1,800 or fewer.
Private security companies benefit from this staffing gap in two ways. They pick up contracts that businesses would previously have relied on police to handle informally. And they recruit from the same labor pool, sometimes hiring former MPD officers who left during the post-2023 exodus.
What 2024 Looks Like for Tennessee Security
Three forces are converging this year across the state. First, crime is genuinely declining in most categories, which should continue through the spring barring any unexpected spike. Second, police departments in the state’s four largest cities are all dealing with staffing challenges that reduce their ability to respond quickly to non-violent calls. Third, businesses and property owners have more budget appetite for private security than at any point in the last decade.
For security companies, the question isn’t whether demand will grow. It will. The question is whether the industry can meet that demand with qualified, properly licensed personnel.
Tennessee’s guard registration process through the Tennessee Department of Commerce and Insurance has been running slow. Processing times that used to take two to three weeks stretched to four or five weeks by the end of 2023. For a company that wins a new contract and needs to staff 10 guards in three weeks, that kind of delay is a genuine operational problem.
Armed guard registrations take even longer because they require additional background checks and firearms qualification documentation. A company that wants to staff an armed contract from scratch is looking at a six-week minimum from application to deployment. In a market where clients want guards on-site next Monday, not next month, that timeline can cost you the contract.
Beyond Memphis: Statewide Patterns
Nashville’s security market is growing almost as fast as Memphis’s. The city’s construction boom along the riverfront and in the Gulch has created demand for construction site security, and the steady growth of the hospitality sector downtown means more hotels, event venues, and entertainment districts that need guard services.
Knoxville’s growth is quieter. The University of Tennessee campus area drives some demand, along with the expanding medical corridor around UT Medical Center. Chattanooga’s market remains smaller relative to its population, with most demand concentrated in the downtown tourist district and along the Volkswagen manufacturing corridor.
Across all four cities, one theme repeats: companies that can recruit, train, and retain guards are winning. Companies that can’t are losing contracts to those that can, regardless of price.
The Year Ahead
Tennessee enters 2024 in better shape than it entered 2023. Crime is trending down. Investment in security technology is trending up. The consent decree in Memphis will reshape policing in ways that create sustained demand for private security services.
The companies that will thrive this year are the ones already investing in their workforce pipeline. That means competitive wages, efficient onboarding processes, and a relationship with TDCI that ensures registrations move through without unnecessary delays.
The crime numbers are good news for Tennessee. They’re even better news for the companies positioned to fill the space that traditional policing can’t cover anymore.