Six months of crime data from the Memphis Police Department tell a story that can’t be captured in a single headline. Some zip codes saw double-digit drops in violent crime. Others barely moved. A few got worse. The citywide numbers look promising, and they should, since Part 1 crimes across Memphis have continued the downward trend that started in late 2023. What the citywide average hides is the neighborhood-level reality that security companies, insurance adjusters, and property managers actually need to understand.
If you’re pricing a security contract in Shelby County right now, zip code matters more than ever. The gap between the safest and most dangerous areas in the county has actually widened in the first half of 2025, which means blanket pricing models are increasingly out of touch with on-the-ground risk.
38109: Whitehaven Shows Progress, With Caveats
Whitehaven’s zip code has long been one of the most closely watched in Memphis crime statistics. Through June 2025, violent crime incidents in 38109 dropped roughly 14% compared to the same period last year, according to MPD precinct-level data. Aggravated assaults fell noticeably, and homicides in the area were tracking below 2024’s pace.
Property crime tells a different story. Vehicle thefts in 38109 remained stubbornly high. The corridor along Elvis Presley Boulevard between Shelby Drive and Brooks Road continues to generate a disproportionate number of auto theft reports. Several strip mall parking lots in the area are repeat locations in MPD’s hot spot analysis.
For security companies bidding on commercial contracts in Whitehaven, this split creates a pricing puzzle. Violent crime is down enough that some property owners want to renegotiate contracts downward. Property crime hasn’t budged enough to justify reducing patrol frequency or camera coverage. The smart play for operators in this area is shifting resources from armed guard posts toward mobile patrol and surveillance monitoring, matching the actual threat profile rather than the outdated one.
38115: Hickory Hill Fights an Uphill Battle
Hickory Hill’s 38115 remains one of the highest-crime zip codes in Shelby County at the midpoint of 2025. Violent crime dropped only about 6% year-over-year here, well below the citywide average decline. The area around Hickory Hill Road and Winchester has persistent issues with armed robberies at convenience stores and gas stations, a pattern that’s been consistent for years.
The apartment complexes along the Kirby Road corridor continue generating a high volume of police calls. Property managers in this stretch are among the most active buyers of security services in all of Memphis. Several complexes added overnight patrol contracts in early 2025 after insurance carriers threatened to drop coverage or raise premiums.
One data point worth watching: domestic-related aggravated assaults in 38115 actually increased in the first quarter of 2025 before declining in the second quarter. TBI’s quarterly report flagged this pattern across several high-density residential zip codes in Memphis, suggesting it may be connected to economic stress factors rather than street-level criminal activity.
Commercial security demand in Hickory Hill is among the strongest in the metro area. New retail construction along Winchester Road has brought several national chains into the zip code, and every one of them is contracting private security from day one. That’s unusual. Five years ago, national retailers would wait until they experienced loss before hiring guards. Now they’re building security costs into their opening budgets.
38104: Midtown’s Mixed Signals
Midtown Memphis occupies an interesting position in the crime data. The 38104 zip code has the kind of demographic and economic mix that makes simple crime statistics misleading. It includes Cooper-Young, which functions almost like a small town with low crime and high neighborhood engagement. It also includes stretches of Poplar and Union where commercial property crime remains a real problem.
Through June 2025, total Part 1 crimes in 38104 were down about 11% year-over-year. That’s decent. The breakdown matters more. Violent crime dropped significantly in the residential pockets, particularly around Overton Park and the Cooper-Young Historic District. Property crime along the commercial corridors barely changed.
Auto burglaries near the Overton Square entertainment district remain a persistent headache. Weekend nights between May and June 2025 produced clusters of vehicle break-ins in restaurant and bar parking lots. MPD’s Real Time Crime Center identified several of these as the work of organized groups hitting multiple lots in a single night, not random opportunism.
Security companies operating in Midtown are increasingly selling camera systems to restaurant and bar owners, often at the recommendation of MPD officers who respond to repeat calls at the same locations. The demand isn’t for armed guards. It’s for evidence-quality surveillance that can feed footage to the Real Time Crime Center quickly enough to catch repeat offenders. That shift in what Midtown businesses want from their security providers reflects a broader trend across Memphis: less emphasis on deterrence through physical presence, more emphasis on technology-assisted investigation.
38103: Downtown Keeps Improving
Downtown Memphis, covered by the 38103 zip code, continued its strong crime reduction trend in the first half of 2025. Part 1 crimes in the area were down approximately 19% compared to mid-2024, making it one of the most improved zip codes in the city.
The reasons aren’t mysterious. Heavy investment in Beale Street and the convention center area brought more foot traffic, better lighting, and increased MPD patrols. The private security presence along Main Street and the trolley route is visible and consistent. Downtown Memphis Commission’s safety ambassador program, which puts uniformed ambassadors on the streets during business hours, has been credited by several property managers as a meaningful supplement to their own security contracts.
What’s interesting about 38103 is that the security spending hasn’t decreased even as crime dropped. Commercial property owners downtown are maintaining their guard contracts and surveillance systems. When asked why, most cite the same thing: tenant retention. Office tenants and retail lessees in downtown Memphis care deeply about perceived safety. Cutting security when crime drops risks losing tenants who chose the building partly because of the visible security presence.
This dynamic creates a stable market for security companies working downtown. Contracts aren’t tied to crime statistics alone. They’re tied to tenant expectations and lease negotiations, which means the revenue is more predictable than in areas where contracts get cut the moment police stats improve.
38128: Raleigh and Frayser Remain the Toughest Assignment
The 38128 zip code covers parts of Raleigh and the Frayser community, and it remains the most challenging area for both law enforcement and private security companies in Shelby County. Mid-2025 data from MPD shows violent crime in 38128 declined only about 4% year-over-year, the smallest decrease of any major Memphis zip code.
Frayser in particular continues to struggle with gun violence. The area around Thomas Street and Whitney Avenue recorded multiple shooting incidents in the first six months of 2025. Community organizations have been active in violence intervention efforts, and MPD has maintained a heavy patrol presence, yet the numbers move slowly.
For security companies, 38128 presents a difficult business calculation. The need for security services is enormous. The ability of businesses and property owners in the area to pay market rates is limited. Several security operators have described Frayser contracts as loss leaders, taken at thin margins to maintain a presence in the area or to satisfy requirements from insurance carriers who cover properties there.
One security company owner, who asked not to be named, described bidding on a warehouse contract in the Frayser industrial corridor: “The insurance company required 24/7 armed guards. The property owner couldn’t afford the standard rate. We ended up doing a hybrid with armed response and camera monitoring. It’s not ideal for anyone, and that’s just the reality of working in that part of town.”
How Security Companies Use Zip Code Data
The practical application of zip-level crime data goes beyond deciding where to deploy guards. Tennessee security companies use it for at least three critical business functions.
First, contract pricing. A guard post in 38103 carries different risk than the same post in 38128, and the insurance, training, and liability costs reflect that. Companies that price uniformly across zip codes either lose bids in safer areas or lose money in dangerous ones.
Second, staffing decisions. Armed guard assignments in high-crime zip codes require different personnel than unarmed posts in low-crime areas. Experience matters. Turnover matters more. The guards willing to work overnight in Frayser aren’t the same ones staffing a Germantown office lobby, and the pay scales reflect that divide.
Third, proposal positioning. When a security company responds to an RFP from a property management firm, the ability to cite specific crime data for that property’s zip code separates professional operators from companies that just promise “trained and licensed guards.” Knowing that auto burglaries in 38104 cluster on weekend nights near entertainment venues tells a prospective client that this security company understands their actual risk profile.
The Bigger Picture for Shelby County
Memphis crime data at the zip code level confirms what most people working in security already suspected: the city’s improvement is real and uneven. The zip codes with the most investment, the most community engagement, and the most coordinated law enforcement and private security efforts are seeing the biggest drops. The zip codes without those advantages are being left behind.
TBI’s mid-year data release, expected in August, will provide statewide context for these Memphis numbers. Early indications suggest Memphis is outpacing several other Tennessee cities in crime reduction, which tracks with the heavy investment in policing and the growing private security presence across the metro area.
For property managers, business owners, and security operators working in Shelby County, the zip code breakdown matters more than the headline. A 15% citywide crime drop doesn’t help you if your building sits in a zip code that went the other direction. The data is free and available through MPD’s public records portal. Using it well is the difference between smart security spending and guessing.