The ball dropped on 2020, and nobody in Tennessee’s security industry was sorry to see it go. A pandemic that gutted commercial contracts. A Christmas Day bombing in downtown Nashville that left Second Avenue looking like a war zone. Memphis posting roughly 330 homicides for the year, the worst tally the city had seen in over two decades. If you ran a security company anywhere in this state last year, you spent most of it putting out fires, sometimes literally.
So what does 2021 look like? I’ve spent the last two weeks talking to company owners, operations managers, HR directors, and a handful of law enforcement contacts across the state. The consensus isn’t exactly optimistic, and it’s not pessimistic either. It’s cautious. Guarded. The word I heard most often was “uncertain.”
That tracks. We’re entering a year with more variables than anyone can model.
Vaccines Change the Security Equation
Tennessee began distributing COVID-19 vaccines in mid-December. The initial rollout targeted healthcare workers and nursing home residents, and by January the state was working to expand access to broader populations. For the security industry, this creates immediate and tangible demand.
Vaccine distribution sites need access control. They need crowd management. They need parking lot security and, in some cases, armed presence. Hospitals across Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, and Chattanooga are standing up mass vaccination clinics in convention centers, church parking lots, and fairgrounds. Every one of these sites requires security personnel.
“We got three calls in the last week of December alone,” one Nashville-area operations manager told me. He asked not to be named because his company hadn’t finalized the contracts yet. “These are healthcare systems that never used private security before. They’re calling us because they don’t have enough staff to handle lines of 500 people.”
The vaccine security demand is real, and it’s happening right now. Companies that can staff these contracts quickly will pick up revenue that helps offset months of pandemic losses. The challenge, as always, is finding guards.
The Nashville Bombing Still Echoes
On Christmas morning, Anthony Quinn Warner detonated an RV packed with explosives on Second Avenue North in downtown Nashville. The blast damaged more than 40 buildings, knocked out AT&T communications across multiple states, and injured eight people. Warner died in the explosion. It was the largest intentional detonation on American soil since the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995.
For the security industry, the Nashville bombing raises questions that don’t have clean answers. How do you protect a downtown entertainment district from a vehicle-borne IED? How do you screen for threats when the attacker parks a vehicle overnight and detonates it at 6:30 AM on a holiday?
Several Nashville security consultants I spoke with said they’ve already fielded calls from property owners on Broadway and in the Gulch asking about blast mitigation, vehicle barriers, and upgraded surveillance. One consultant, a former ATF agent, described the conversations as “panicked and unfocused.”
“They want a magic solution,” he said. “They want me to tell them this can never happen again. I can’t say that. What I can tell them is that there are steps, real physical and procedural steps, that reduce risk. Bollards. Camera analytics. Employee awareness training. None of it is cheap, and none of it is perfect.”
The bombing will almost certainly accelerate spending on physical security in Nashville’s commercial core. The city’s tourism economy depends on visitors feeling safe on Lower Broadway, and the property owners along Second Avenue, those whose buildings survived, are going to invest in protection whether the city mandates it or not.
Memphis: 330 Homicides and Counting
Memphis ended 2020 with approximately 330 homicides. The number is staggering. That’s a roughly 60% increase over 2019 and puts Memphis near the top of per-capita murder rates among major American cities.
The violence wasn’t evenly distributed. Neighborhoods like Whitehaven, Frayser, Orange Mound, and Hickory Hill bore the worst of it. Carjackings surged. Shootings at gas stations and convenience stores became so frequent that some owners simply closed after dark.
For the security industry in the Memphis metro, the homicide numbers translate directly into demand. Commercial property owners, apartment complex managers, retail chains, and healthcare facilities are all looking to add security presence. The problem is the same one it’s been for years: Memphis needs more guards than the industry can supply, and the pay rates haven’t kept up with the risk.
I spoke with a Shelby County property management executive who manages 14 commercial properties across the metro. He told me that in December, two of his tenants made security a lease condition. “They said, ‘If you don’t provide security in the parking lot, we’re not renewing.’ That’s new. I’ve been doing this 20 years and nobody ever made security a lease requirement before.”
That kind of tenant pressure is going to push property managers toward private security contracts whether they want to spend the money or not. And it creates a seller’s market for guard companies that can actually deliver bodies.
Commercial Real Estate: Slow Thaw
The pandemic crushed commercial real estate activity across Tennessee in 2020. Office buildings emptied. Retail foot traffic collapsed. Hotels in Nashville ran at occupancy rates below 30%. Every one of those empty buildings meant a security contract that either got cancelled, reduced, or renegotiated at lower rates.
Early signs in January 2021 suggest a slow recovery. Nashville’s hotel sector is starting to see weekend bookings tick up. Memphis distribution centers, which never really slowed down thanks to FedEx and the logistics sector, are expanding. Knoxville’s office market is showing modest leasing activity.
The recovery won’t be uniform. Downtown office buildings in Nashville and Memphis may take years to return to pre-pandemic occupancy. Remote work has permanently reduced the need for some commercial space, and that means fewer security contracts at those properties.
On the other hand, e-commerce has driven warehouse and distribution center construction across the state. These facilities need security: access control, perimeter monitoring, camera systems, and roving patrols. The Memphis logistics corridor in particular is seeing new construction that will generate security demand throughout 2021 and beyond.
The Hiring Problem Hasn’t Gone Away
Tennessee’s security industry entered 2021 with the same workforce crisis it had before the pandemic. Guard turnover rates remain astronomical, particularly in Memphis and Nashville. Starting wages at many firms sit between $10 and $12 an hour, which isn’t enough to attract reliable candidates when Amazon is offering $15 or more for warehouse work with benefits.
The Tennessee Department of Commerce and Insurance (TDCI) requires security guards to complete training and obtain registration. The process isn’t as burdensome as some states, yet it still creates friction. A prospective guard has to complete a background check, finish required training hours, and wait for approval. In a labor market where people can get hired at a fast-food restaurant the same day they apply, that timeline pushes candidates toward easier options.
Several company owners told me they expect 2021 to bring a hiring surge as commercial demand recovers. The question is whether they can fill the positions. One Memphis firm owner put it bluntly: “I could double my revenue tomorrow if I had the people. I don’t have the people.”
Five Predictions for 2021
After two weeks of reporting, here’s where I think the Tennessee security industry is headed this year:
1. Healthcare security becomes a major revenue category. Vaccine distribution will drive demand for at least the first half of the year. Hospitals and health departments that never contracted private security before will start doing so.
2. Nashville invests heavily in physical security. The Christmas Day bombing created urgency that didn’t exist before. Expect vehicle barriers, upgraded camera systems, and blast-resistant construction in the downtown core.
3. Memphis guard demand outpaces supply again. The homicide crisis will push more businesses toward private security. The industry won’t be able to hire fast enough, and wages will inch upward, slowly.
4. Consolidation accelerates. Allied Universal’s pending acquisition of G4S will reshape the national market, and smaller Tennessee firms will feel the ripple effects. Some will pick up clients fleeing big-company bureaucracy. Others will get squeezed on pricing.
5. Technology spending increases. Companies that can’t hire enough guards will turn to technology: remote video monitoring, access control systems, license plate readers, and drone surveillance. Tennessee firms that offer integrated tech-plus-guard solutions will have an advantage.
The Year Ahead
Tennessee’s security industry is entering 2021 battered, short-staffed, and facing a state that’s more violent and more anxious than it’s been in decades. That’s the bad news. The good news is that demand for security services has rarely been higher. Property owners, healthcare systems, event venues, and municipalities are all looking for protection.
The companies that figure out how to hire, train, and retain guards at scale will win big in 2021. The ones that can’t will watch contracts go unfilled and revenue walk out the door.
Nobody said this business was easy. This year, it’s going to be especially hard. And especially profitable, if you can execute.